Tag Archive | Technology

The AI Bubble Has Begun To Burst

Oct27

The AI bubble has burst in China. AI tech stocks were 42% of China’s market capitalization. And the crash is on in China. This is why Anthropic is trying to get their IPO done – to steal from people who don’t know any better.

In the US, AI-linked and core tech stocks account for roughly 42% to 62% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, depending on the scope of companies included:

• Core AI-Linked Companies: A broad analysis of 218 AI-associated companies represents 62.04% ($42.39 trillion) of the S&P 500’s total market value.

• Core Software, Chips & Infrastructure: A tighter group of 58 direct AI-building companies (chips, models, software, security) accounts for 47.13% of the index weight.

• AI Big 10 / Megacaps: The top 10 largest AI and tech-related companies account for approximately 42% of the total U.S. stock market capitalization.

So just 10 of S&P AI companies are 42% of total US stock market capitalization. JUST 10! That’s as much percentage wise as the entire Chinese market!

And if you go broader, including Amazon, Google, and other cloud service companies heavily investing in AI, the market capitalization reached 62%!!!

This is going to crash and crash hard. Amazon, Alphabet (formerly Google), and Microsoft are going to take huge losses but they still have a base business underneath the AI bubble so they can potentially recover. But Anthropic? OpenAI? Databricks? Palantir? They’re going to collapse. So is SpaceX, which is primarily an AI company now, not a space company.

This is also why Musk is “giving away” shares of SpaceX – because it’s going to crash too. But by giving away these shares in “Trump accounts”, the shares are locked in for 5 years at current prices. By the time the shares can be sold, they’ll be worthless. Meanwhile, Musk gets a tax break for his “philanthropy”.

The potential bottom for the DJIA is clear down somewhere near 20,000. Today it is at 52,377. 60% of that is 30,000 points. The DJIA is carrying the potential to collapse by 30,000 points.

The collapse won’t happen in one fell swoop. It will take time, but once the bottom falls out and AI, which is still not profitable after 7 years even at extremely high per seat subscription prices, is going to be seen as the con man bust that it is.

No wonder Donald Trump is so big on AI. It’s a total con, right up his alley.

The Chinese AI Bubble Has Already Burst

A Public Service Announcement About Facebook, Network Connections, and Bad Programming

Sep22

Facebook is an amazing social media experience but technologically, it’s a pile of crap. And it’s not the only pile of crap out there either. A lot of work has gone into making the HTTP/HTTPS protocols useful as “live” protocols when they never intended as such. HTTP/HTTPS were always intended to grab static content and deliver it for viewing, not interaction.

But this is like VHS and Betamax. VHS was worse but it won that war. The world wide web now sits atop a mess of HTTP/HTTPS code that is really problematic and often unnecessary, and which often has unintended side effects.

Case in point – I recently lost access to my Facebook account. Every time I tried to login, pages would not successfully load. I checked all sorts of things, flushed browser caches, tried four different browsers on four different machines. None of this helped. I could login to a different account fine on a given machine but not into my account.

A friend came along and mentioned that she had similar issues before and solved them by going into Settings, choosing the Security tab, then choosing “Where You’re Logged In”. Since I couldn’t even login, I wasn’t sure this was helpful, but I persisted and I finally managed to login to my account on Chrome on my HTC One smart phone. When I did, I was shocked. There were a large number of sessions, from all sorts of places. One was from the Atlanta airport in 2013 – more than two years ago! Yet Facebook still counted this as an “open” session and apparently was trying to keep it alive.

I began killing clearly old sessions. After whittling that number way down to just the few machines I use around my house, I tried to login from my desktop PC again. It worked. The laptop worked. And while I don’t always do that, it worked logging in from my work laptop as well.

So I am making this post as a public service announcement, and for myself as well. I want to preserve this reminder on somewhere other than Facebook so I can get the specifics again, should I ever need it again.

But I will also try to avoid that and periodically check my open session count, just to be sure it doesn’t end up crazy huge again either.