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Warning! Warning! Danger, Will Robinson!

Aug22

In the old campy sci-fi series “Lost In Space” from the 1960s, the Robinson family’s robot frequently threw its arms around shouting “Warning! Warning! Danger, Will Robinson!” to warn the youngest member of the family that something bad was about to happen.

And okay, I’m going to make give you a warning and this market call for y’all now.

In the summer of 2007, before the Great Recession fully broke, I saw two hedge funds totally collapse based on housing bond investments. Those bonds were very shaky. That, to me, was the beginning of the end of the bull run market of the 2001-2009 time period. Two major banks collapsed over the following 15 months – Bear Stearns (March 2008) followed by Lehman Brothers (September 2008).

In July 2026, an AI investment hedge fund, Situational Awareness, lost 78% of its value in 3 days. This, to me, is a trigger event. It’s time to pay close attention to markets.

Hedge fund collapses, when they happen, are normally caused by losses between 5%-20% of their portfolio. When a hedge fund collapses because of massive losses in the ranges of 80%-90% of assumed value, this means those assets are worthless! And there are hundreds of billions of dollars of such investments across the entire US, with many pension funds and 401Ks invested in such questionable instruments. How much of your money is tied up in worthless investments right now?

The US banking and investment industry has over a trillion dollars invested in AI alone. Every single day. the AI bubble is looking worse than the internet bubble of 2001.

Right now no AI company is making a profit. None, nada, zip. They are licensing seats at thousands of dollars per seat and still losing money! Does this remind you of the dot-com bubble of 2001? How many companies were going to make amazing profits “real soon now”? Goldman Sachs is predicting one AI chipmaker will see 180% growth in stock share valuation in the next 12 months. Where can such value come from if nobody is making a profit?

Another $650 billion is currently slated for investment in AI data centers from Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Meta alone, never mind the smaller players.

In the first half of 2026, AI investment in the US alone was $331 billion dollars in an industry that still shows no profits from any of its players!

Wired Magazine sounded the alarm a few years ago that AI is a bubble but now the signs are worsening that this bubble is close to bursting.

I don’t know what to tell you when Trump is wrecking the dollar, running record deficits, and US bond interest rates are rising dangerously (bond prices falling, in other words).

When bond prices fall and stock markets collapse, there are few safe havens left but this bubble feels like it’s close to going boom. And when it goes boom, with Trump wrecking the dollar and US Bonds, I don’t know how bad it can get but it won’t be pretty.

Please take care of yourselves if you have retirement investments. The market isn’t collapsing yet but there are strong warning signs all over. Try to evaluate where you want your retirement funds invested if you have the option and try to find somewhere safe because AI is not the safe or wise investment right now.

If Defending The Human Rights Of Any Group Is A Purity Test, Then You’ve Outed Yourself As Being Pro-Genocide

Aug12

I recently responded to a white cishet man who presented himself as a Democrat that trans people must forgive Representative Robert Vindman for voting against the safety of trans kids. Below is my response to him. I’ve linked the article that generated this response after said man said this was a “purity test” that would hurt Democrats generally.

Virginia congressman’s meeting with transgender Democrats erupts into profanity. Then he walked out.

Nobody gets to declare themselves an ally then betray that community. He betrayed that community, period, full stop.

Hopefully, he learned something in this exchange. Just because he is a loving parent doesn’t mean every parent is. He had actual trans people explaining this to him and he refused to listen.

I guarantee the entire LGBTQ community would have been up in arms if the bill had included outing gay kids because they’ve lived through this too.

LGBTQ kids are 5%-10% of the total under 18 population, based on different attempts to measure that number. Yet LGBTQ kids are over 40% of homeless children. Of the remaining 60% of homeless kids, the overwhelming majority left home voluntarily. Of that 40% who are LGBTQ, 99% left home because they were thrown out.

Vindman is refusing to listen to the lived experiences of trans people who came to talk to him. This is no different than a white man refusing to listen to the lived experiences of Black people and trying to justify a racist vote. It’s the exact same thing.

I want to ask you a question. Do you know what the Lemkin Institute is?

It is a private non-profit organization set up after WWII to try to identify and stop genocides before they become full blown mass killings. They have identified every single genocide in progress since WWII before it became mass murder. They also have never successfully stopped a genocide before it became mass murder because Western governments refused to act.

The Lemkin Institute has issued three separate warnings that the Trump administration is on track to commit genocide of transgender people. Such a warning has never been issued against the United States before. Yet now we have 3 warnings from the Lemkin Institute.

If they are as successful as they’ve been in the past, assholes like you will be erecting monuments to dead trans people saying “Who could have seen it coming?” and “I wonder what we could have done to stop it?” once this is all over.

Yet some huge number of trans people are going to end up dead if this continues down this road. And now we have Democrats piling on to the genocidal actions of the Trump administration.

Genocides start by identifying the target, dehumanizing the target, making them an enemy that the majority no longer cares about, separating them from the “good” majority (often for their own “safety”), and then eventually, mass killing them as a final solution.

The Trump administration is actively engaged in those first three actions listen above and Republicans across the nation are calling for trans people to be segregated from public life. Some are already calling for them to be “rounded up”. What do you think comes after “rounding up” trans people?

The only expectation I have from any Democrat is that they are not bendable on human rights. Because any Democrat willing to throw one group under the bus has proved himself willing to throw other groups under the bus.

Vindman is a privileged white man who refused to listen to trans voters or Black voters who tried to talk to him then tried to justify his actions against human rights as “being a parent”.

Fuck Vindman. If that’s the sort of Democrat he is, trans voters don’t need him as a representative, because, to us, he’s no different from a Republican.

And don’t bring up other rights and freedoms of other groups because if we’re being put in camps, what good are those “freedoms” to us?

The Cesspool of Hate and Bigotry Right Under Many Parents’ Noses

Jul31

Let me make some feminist observations coming from a place you probably wouldn’t expect to find feminist observations at all – online video gaming and especially massive multiplayer online video gaming (MMOs).

One game I’ve played is called Black Desert Online (hereafter abbreviated BDO). It has one of the most extensive character customization editors in the entire online gaming world. The character face alone has 39 separate small regions that can be adjusted in every conceivable dimension including the ears. The body has 19 separate regions adjustable via sliders and that’s not counting the hands, each of which has 3 adjustable regions per finger and the palm region which is a total of 51 potential adjustments across the body from neck to foot. (Toes are not individually adjustable.)

You can create a character template and then save it. You can share saved templates publicly. And shared templates can be named.

I’ve seen some incredible templates done, which look nothing like the default character that Pearl Abyss has created. I’ve seen hundreds of celebrity templates that, depending on the gender of the specific class (classes are gender locked), look like famous actors, actresses, sports figures, or even a few politicians.

But for all of this extremely creative work, we then find the other templates. You don’t find this with male gender classes, only female gender classes.

Templates in which the character’s breasts are so large you wonder how the character can possibly stand. Character templates with buttocks so large that you wonder if something is medically wrong with them. Character templates titled “Mommy”, “Waifu”, “Cutie”. There used to be a lot of “Ho” templates but Pearl Abyss apparently cracked down and forced those to be retitled or deleted. You do still see some character templates with “THOT” in them.

Another game I’ve played is Star Wars: The Old Republic (SWTOR). SWTOR doesn’t have character creators. You can basically choose one of 4 body types but you can make extensive face adjustments, just nothing like BDO. But SWTOR’s brilliance is that it has so many character outfits you can put your character into. Mandalorian armor sets (a few dozen choices), Jedi robe or armor sets (a few dozen choices), Sith robe and armor choices, several dozen choices that look like smuggler and bounty hunter type armor. And the beauty of this system is that almost any class can wear almost any outfit set. (A tiny number are gender locked.)

And given these choices, as a role-player, I almost always had my female characters dressed in full coverings most of the time. The rare time they were not was usually some in-character function, like attending a gala and wearing an evening gown.

And further, you can have dozens of potential companions in SWTOR to fight alongside you (one companion at a time but you can switch any time except in the middle of a fight). And many of those characters are female too.

So what do many of those female characters and companions get dressed in most often? The least covering most revealing outfits possible.

Then let’s talk about MMO game chat systems. Most MMOs have channels that are pretty wide reaching. In BDO there are several channels that reach the entire instance of the game world. In SWTOR there are general channels that reach wide sections of the game world. In WOW, there are general channels that reach wide segments of the game world.

These are a built in feature of almost every MMO in existence. And if you listen to these channels, you find yourself immersed in a total culture of absolutely pure misogyny and hate. Hatred of women, hatred of anyone not white (the use of the N-word is common), hatred of anyone who is queer but especially hatred of trans women and gay men, and more.

These channels are among the most toxic, abusive channels of communications in the world today. And none of these companies police these channels. No policing action is done. The most vile, hateful things are said in these channels.

There is non-stop racist, homophobic, transphobic, misogynistic chatter going on in these game channels 24 hours a day, 7 days a week except when the servers are down for maintenance.

People talk about 4Chan and 8Chan as toxic places on the dark web but MMO game chat systems, and the cultures they create which are inhabited by MILLIONS OF YOUR MEN AND TEENAGE BOYS are conditioning these young men and teenage boys to become bigots in every part of their corrupt little souls.

Are there those that resist? Sure, but most don’t fight the tide. Those who don’t want to hear it, because they have no real policing powers and the owners of the games refuse to police their chat systems, usually just turn off global or wide reaching channels that becomes hotbeds of bigotry.

The online social media culture of hate and negativity that we see on Facebook, Threads, BlueSky, X, and other social media platforms did not arise overnight from whole cloth. It arose from these MMO game chat systems that have been unpoliced since the mid-1990s, places of toxic hate and abuse against anyone the majority deems “less than”. Then those people grew up and moved on to other social media where they brought their sense of entitlement, hatred, and bigotry with them.

You cannot clean up social media systems without first going after related communication systems like MMO game chat systems, the systems that start programming kids who are in their early teens to hate and mock anyone different from themselves.

And that’s going to require legislation that neither major party wants to touch right now.

Big tech is out of control, not just in AI, but in its open support of sexual abuse, its support of production of child sexual assault materials (CSAM), it’s production of openly racist materials.

If this is not reigned in on a society wide scale, it will destroy civilization. Elon Musk fears people of color and people of religions other than Christianity. He and his tech bros are a bigger threat to civilization than any other single factor right now.

Wrong Life

Jan28

This was written by a friend. I have attempted to strip any identifying information from the original piece to protect the author. It expresses how it feels to be transgender in America in 2026. Right now, in 2026, transgender people are the target of government genocide. Each step becomes more explicit. Each action becomes more violent towards the trans community. This is how The Holocaust happened. You are living through such a moment right now. What you do, other than just posting on social media, will determine what happens to trans adults and children in the near future. If you let them murder us without a fight, you are complicit.

Wrong Life

Every once a while I encounter a quote that brings me up short and helps re-frame how I see the world. Such is the case when I came across this quote by Theodore Adorno as I researched the rise of Nazi Germany, and the origins of the Holocaust:

“A wrong life cannot be lived rightly”

Out of context I interpreted it to mean that if a person is the wrong sort of life (e.g. Jewish, Sinti, disabled) nothing that person can do can grant them the grace of being “one of the good ones.” No matter their character, achievements, capability, “wrong life” can only have a negative value to society. The only way to balance the equation is to eliminate that wrong life and bring the sum to zero on both sides.

This thought stopped me in my tracks, and I could hear the paradigm shift without a clutch, because it explained everything I was both feeling, and seeing over the past year. It was the grand unification theorem of my inner world, and what I was seeing that was external to me.

I am wrong life. And despite my efforts to live rightly, it simply does not matter. Nothing I can do will change the equation, other than my eradication. Internally, this realization is what fuels my anger. I genuinely tried to be a good person and contribute in ways that are lauded in others. I’m angry at the breaking of the American compact that supposedly we should be judged by the content of our character, and not government fiat that people like me are incapable of leading “honorable” or “disciplined” lives. I’m furious at the hypocrisy and having wasted my life trying to earn a place in a country that ultimately decided I must be destroyed.

But none of it matters. My government, and the people that voted for it, have declared me wrong life, and there’s nothing I can do to change it. Indeed, the President explicitly ran on the idea that I am wrong life was a feature and not a bug. The GOP spent hundreds of millions of dollars spreading the narrative that anyone who doesn’t want wrong life eliminated is against the herrenvolk.

At the same time, this sentence helps me understand why this level of bigotry reminds me more of the Holocaust than other civil rights atrocities in American history. For most other marginalized groups in American history it was still possible to be one of “the good ones”. For black people, there was room for acceptance of those who “knew their place”. Whites needed them for their labor. Indeed, the South fought the Civil War because they needed slavery for their economy. Japanese Americans were interned but allowed to fight in the European Theater of Operations. Hispanics were long used for their agricultural labor or valued as reliable Republican voters in Florida. Their lives had less value than other Americans, but it wasn’t a negative number.

Mine is.

And that’s the fundamental difference between the oppression and demonization of transgender people today, and the civil rights issues of the past. It’s also why the policies being enacted look far more like Nazi efforts to push Jews and LGBT people out of Germany as non-citizens of the Reich than previous government efforts to keep certain classes of people “in their place” as second class citizens.

This quote snapped into place why I have felt far more comfortable framing current events within the scope of German history than the US. It’s also the most useful framework for understanding why Republicans are targeting transgender people with literally over a 1000 bills per year designed to make life impossible enough that they either leave the country, detransition, or live in a country where they aren’t allowed to leave their houses for fear of arrest because a minor might see them in public.

They see us as wrong life. And even those who do not see us as such are willing to go along with it because it is the dark side of politics: it looks like the quick and easy path to power to take this position in public. Any Republican that does not behave as if transgender people are all wrong life is likely to be forced out of the party, and away from the levers of power.

I have expressed some of these frustrations before, and people have expressed sentiments along the lines of “well, I don’t think of you that way.” While appreciative of such support, they simply don’t matter because the people who express these thoughts have no institutional power. My own sense of self worth is completely irrelevant to this equation, and changes nothing in practice. Neither do the sentiments of people with no authority.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but my sense of self-esteem, and what some powerless people think about me, is meaningless if my transgender son and I are spending our last moments holding our breath and trying to claw our way through concrete with our fingernails while taking a “shower” with 100 strangers. All it provides is a further sense that the situation is unjust. It does nothing to keep me alive in the face of a movement that controls the government and has officially declared us to be “wrong life.”

Only the government’s opinion matters. And no matter what I do, I cannot be anything other than wrong life in their eyes, and the eyes of the people keeping the government in power. That government has made it clear it intends to remain in power in perpetuity at any cost. I will always be wrong life if I remain in the United States. The only way to change the equation to zero without expiring is to remove myself from the equation the same way Jews did from Germany: by emigrating to a place where their lives can have some value greater than zero.

I want my life to have a positive value again as seen by the people who matter. I cannot express how much of a relief it will be when I do not have to spend every waking moment aware of being wrong-life. If you wondered what being trans in America is like today, here you find my soul laid bare in Hell.

The Truth About Sapphic Divorce Rates

Jan7

This information was originally posted as a thread by bambi_girl_wlw (Sumaya Si) on Threads. I have consolidated this thread here for easy reference for anyone that wants to use the data. Everything between the separators here is her work.

Lesbian divorce rates are not unusually high. Reality is lesbians have the lowest rates of cheating and some of the highest relationship satisfaction. This thread debunks a widely misunderstood statistic—using real data.

The “70%” figure comes from ONS data from England and Wales, but it is often misunderstood. The data do not say that 70% of lesbian marriages end in divorce. What the ONS data actually state is that among all same-sex divorces, about 70% involved lesbian couples and 30% involved gay male couples. Importantly, the absolute number of divorces is low for both groups.

If we look further into the ONS data, the percentage of same-sex divorces involving lesbian couples was:

  • 2017: 74% female couples, 26% male couples
  • 2019: 72% female couples, 28% male couples
  • 2021: 67.2% female couples, 32.8% male couples

From this, we can conclude that the gap has been narrowing each year.

You might still think this is high compared to gay male couples. However, lesbians are more likely to get married than gay men. In England & Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the female share of same-sex marriages was:

  • 2014: 56.1%
  • 2016: 55.7%
  • 2018: 57.2%
  • 2020: 57.2%
  • 2022: 62.8%

This shows that the marriage rate among lesbian couples is increasing. If we look closely at 2021–2022, the share of marriages and divorces was almost the same. 

According to the 2021 Census and recent surveys (which measure individuals, not couples):
About 2.8% of men identify as gay
About 1.2% of women identify as lesbian
This means there are fewer lesbians overall, yet they make up a larger share of same-sex marriages, suggesting that a higher percentage of lesbians are getting married. 

Yes, in most countries, lesbians do have higher divorce rates than gay men. However, there are exceptions. For example, in Taiwan, gay men actually have a slightly higher divorce rate. From Taiwan MOI / GEC data, when used consistently:
65–70% of same-sex marriages are female couples
~30–35% are male couples
~60–63% of same-sex divorces are female couples
~37–40% are male couples
When these numbers are normalized, gay male couples show a slightly higher divorce rate per marriage. 

Reasons why lesbians may initiate more divorces compared to gay men 

  1. Lesbians are more likely to get married A summary of LGB adults from the Williams Institute showed that: About 51% of women who identify as lesbian were married or cohabiting Only about 35% of gay men reported being in a partnered relationship In most countries, there are more gay men overall, yet lesbians make up a larger share of marriages. I reviewed multiple datasets across different countries, and most showed the same pattern. This suggests that many lesbian women getting married earlier.
  2. Multiple studies suggest that gay men are more likely to be in open relationships than lesbians: In an analysis by Blumstein & Schwartz (cited in Peplau & Beals), 82% of gay male couples reported being non-monogamous, compared to 28% of lesbian couples According to Wikipedia’s summary of available data, about 33% of gay men reported being in open relationships, versus only about 5% of lesbians This suggests that gay men may be less likely to divorce due to adultery or cheating.
  3. Parenting and child-related stress According to U.S. Census data (2019): 22.5% of female same-sex couple households had at least one child under 18 6.6% of male same-sex couple households had at least one child under 18 Overall, lesbians are more likely to have children than gay men, which may mean that parenting-related conflicts are less common in gay male couples. Additionally, lesbian women are more likely to experience pregnancy- and postpartum-related stress, which affect marriages.
  4. Lesbians are the group least likely to cheat on their partner. According to the study “Extradyadic Sex and its Predictors in Homo- and Heterosexuals” by J. Haversath & Kröger (2014):
    4% of lesbian women
    34% of gay men
    29% of heterosexual women
    49% of heterosexual men reported extradyadic sexual contacts (aka cheating).
    This explains that lesbians are individuals who leave the relationship instead of committing adultery.
  5. Lesbians are the happiest and most satisfied among all couples. This suggests that lesbians tend to leave bad relationships earlier. Studies show that lesbian’s tend to be the happiest and most satisfied among all types of couples. For example, a longitudinal study tracking lesbian, gay male, and heterosexual couples over time found that lesbian couples consistently reported the highest overall relationship quality on average across all assessments
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18855506/

In another Swedish follow-up study of couples after assisted reproduction, researchers found that lesbian couples reported greater relationship satisfaction and maintained stable, happy feelings—even when facing the stress of treatment.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12905-014-0154-1

When comparing lesbians specifically to heterosexual women, research also reveals significantly higher levels of satisfaction for lesbian couples.

Again, this information was compiled by bambi_girl_wlw (Sumaya Si) on Threads, and all credit should be extended to her.