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America’s Odds Of Collapse Keep Rising Thanks To Trump

Mar26

The Bulwark, a set of political blogs I sometimes read but don’t always agree with (too right wing sometimes) is sounding the alarm about the dollar. A collapsing dollar, becoming irrelevant to the global economy, is one of the preconditions I’ve mentioned in the past that can lead to the collapse of the United States as a single coherent nation. Below is the comment I left on their page about this article.

Years ago, I began pointing out that Putin’s then ongoing support for white nationalist and state secession movements was mirroring how US policy in the 1980s and 1990s helped bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin had a front row seat to what we did to the USSR, and he took notes. The most important point for Putin was that once the USSR shattered, international pressure led to nuclear disarmament of several former Soviet states.

Apply this backwards – if Putin can cause the Balkanization of the United States, will the world simply allow Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado to retain those ICBM silos? No. In all probability, those new nation states would be pressured to disarm in order to receive international financial aid to rebuild and stabilize their economies.

So there’s a rational underlying goal behind Putin supporting white nationalist and secession movements. This explains Putin funding racist organizations and even Russia supporting Republicans who screamed bloody murder about idiocy like Jade Helm even before Trump was elected.

Then we arrive at Trump’s election. Putin now has a completely vain idiot leading the US, whom he can manipulate with ease by playing on Trump’s narcissistic ego. Before Trump’s election the first time, the dollar was close to parity with the euro. Under Trump, the dollar fell to 0.83 dollars per euro.

Under Biden, the dollar climbed back to 0.96-1.04 versus the euro.

In Trump’s second term, in the first 12 months, the dollar again dropped clear down to 0.83 dollars per euro.

At that point, add in the Iran war, add in the growing white nationalist anti-Israel sentiments, add in Trump trying to withhold funding to blue states, and the pressures at the state level to ask “why are we part of this union anymore?” start to feel obvious.

California alone has the 4th largest economy in the world. They don’t need Trump’s BS to live successfully. California could easily cut deals around the entire Pacific rim within a few months that would be better for California than the current mess. If Oregon and Washington joined California, it would be the 3rd largest economy in the world.

Likewise, New England, as a group of states together, would be a top ten economic powerhouse in the world if they broke away. If Pennsylvania and Maryland joined them, they’d be the 5th largest economy in the world.

So think about it. Trump and the GOP, slashing government services AND wrecking the dollar, are creating a situation that can lead to the collapse of the United States as a single coherent country. Slashing government services alone doesn’t create that situation, but if the dollar is also becoming irrelevant or even worthless, some of the larger blue regions of the country will be left asking themselves, “why stay in this union?”

And when we reach that point, coupled with white nationalism becoming a structural security threat to the rule of law in America, then the potential for the collapse of the United States, will reach a peak.

I think Trump is too stupid to do this himself but he is clearly vain enough to be manipulated to where the US dollar and the federal government both become irrelevant to the everyday lives of the American people. And when that happens, the US dies, and Putin gets to remove American nukes from the global chessboard without firing a single shot.

And THAT will be a moment that will go down in history showing the power of espionage and diplomacy.

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/kill-the-dollar-bill?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

The Truth About Sapphic Divorce Rates

Jan7

This information was originally posted as a thread by bambi_girl_wlw (Sumaya Si) on Threads. I have consolidated this thread here for easy reference for anyone that wants to use the data. Everything between the separators here is her work.

Lesbian divorce rates are not unusually high. Reality is lesbians have the lowest rates of cheating and some of the highest relationship satisfaction. This thread debunks a widely misunderstood statistic—using real data.

The “70%” figure comes from ONS data from England and Wales, but it is often misunderstood. The data do not say that 70% of lesbian marriages end in divorce. What the ONS data actually state is that among all same-sex divorces, about 70% involved lesbian couples and 30% involved gay male couples. Importantly, the absolute number of divorces is low for both groups.

If we look further into the ONS data, the percentage of same-sex divorces involving lesbian couples was:

  • 2017: 74% female couples, 26% male couples
  • 2019: 72% female couples, 28% male couples
  • 2021: 67.2% female couples, 32.8% male couples

From this, we can conclude that the gap has been narrowing each year.

You might still think this is high compared to gay male couples. However, lesbians are more likely to get married than gay men. In England & Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the female share of same-sex marriages was:

  • 2014: 56.1%
  • 2016: 55.7%
  • 2018: 57.2%
  • 2020: 57.2%
  • 2022: 62.8%

This shows that the marriage rate among lesbian couples is increasing. If we look closely at 2021–2022, the share of marriages and divorces was almost the same. 

According to the 2021 Census and recent surveys (which measure individuals, not couples):
About 2.8% of men identify as gay
About 1.2% of women identify as lesbian
This means there are fewer lesbians overall, yet they make up a larger share of same-sex marriages, suggesting that a higher percentage of lesbians are getting married. 

Yes, in most countries, lesbians do have higher divorce rates than gay men. However, there are exceptions. For example, in Taiwan, gay men actually have a slightly higher divorce rate. From Taiwan MOI / GEC data, when used consistently:
65–70% of same-sex marriages are female couples
~30–35% are male couples
~60–63% of same-sex divorces are female couples
~37–40% are male couples
When these numbers are normalized, gay male couples show a slightly higher divorce rate per marriage. 

Reasons why lesbians may initiate more divorces compared to gay men 

  1. Lesbians are more likely to get married A summary of LGB adults from the Williams Institute showed that: About 51% of women who identify as lesbian were married or cohabiting Only about 35% of gay men reported being in a partnered relationship In most countries, there are more gay men overall, yet lesbians make up a larger share of marriages. I reviewed multiple datasets across different countries, and most showed the same pattern. This suggests that many lesbian women getting married earlier.
  2. Multiple studies suggest that gay men are more likely to be in open relationships than lesbians: In an analysis by Blumstein & Schwartz (cited in Peplau & Beals), 82% of gay male couples reported being non-monogamous, compared to 28% of lesbian couples According to Wikipedia’s summary of available data, about 33% of gay men reported being in open relationships, versus only about 5% of lesbians This suggests that gay men may be less likely to divorce due to adultery or cheating.
  3. Parenting and child-related stress According to U.S. Census data (2019): 22.5% of female same-sex couple households had at least one child under 18 6.6% of male same-sex couple households had at least one child under 18 Overall, lesbians are more likely to have children than gay men, which may mean that parenting-related conflicts are less common in gay male couples. Additionally, lesbian women are more likely to experience pregnancy- and postpartum-related stress, which affect marriages.
  4. Lesbians are the group least likely to cheat on their partner. According to the study “Extradyadic Sex and its Predictors in Homo- and Heterosexuals” by J. Haversath & Kröger (2014):
    4% of lesbian women
    34% of gay men
    29% of heterosexual women
    49% of heterosexual men reported extradyadic sexual contacts (aka cheating).
    This explains that lesbians are individuals who leave the relationship instead of committing adultery.
  5. Lesbians are the happiest and most satisfied among all couples. This suggests that lesbians tend to leave bad relationships earlier. Studies show that lesbian’s tend to be the happiest and most satisfied among all types of couples. For example, a longitudinal study tracking lesbian, gay male, and heterosexual couples over time found that lesbian couples consistently reported the highest overall relationship quality on average across all assessments
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18855506/

In another Swedish follow-up study of couples after assisted reproduction, researchers found that lesbian couples reported greater relationship satisfaction and maintained stable, happy feelings—even when facing the stress of treatment.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12905-014-0154-1

When comparing lesbians specifically to heterosexual women, research also reveals significantly higher levels of satisfaction for lesbian couples.

Again, this information was compiled by bambi_girl_wlw (Sumaya Si) on Threads, and all credit should be extended to her.

Biology Is A Shit Show

Apr26

This has been posted elsewhere many times over the years and was composed by Rebecca Helm, a biologist and assistant professor at the University of North Carolina (at least at the time this was written).

Rebecca Helm, a biologist and an assistant professor at the University of North Carolina, Asheville US writes:

Friendly neighborhood biologist here. I see a lot of people are talking about biological sexes and gender right now. Lots of folks make biological sex sex seem really simple. Well, since it’s so simple, let’s find the biological roots, shall we? Let’s talk about sex…[a thread]

If you know a bit about biology you will probably say that biological sex is caused by chromosomes, XX and you’re female, XY and you’re male. This is “chromosomal sex” but is it “biological sex”?

Well…

Turns out there is only ONE GENE on the Y chromosome that really matters to sex. It’s called the SRY gene. During human embryonic development the SRY protein turns on male-associated genes. Having an SRY gene makes you “genetically male”. But is this “biological sex”?

Sometimes that SRY gene pops off the Y chromosome and over to an X chromosome. Surprise! So now you’ve got an X with an SRY and a Y without an SRY. What does this mean?

A Y with no SRY means physically you’re female, chromosomally you’re male (XY) and genetically you’re female (no SRY). An X with an SRY means you’re physically male, chromsomally female (XX) and genetically male (SRY). But biological sex is simple! There must be another answer…

Sex-related genes ultimately turn on hormones in specifics areas on the body, and reception of those hormones by cells throughout the body. Is this the root of “biological sex”??

“Hormonal male” means you produce ‘normal’ levels of male-associated hormones. Except some percentage of females will have higher levels of ‘male’ hormones than some percentage of males. Ditto ditto ‘female’ hormones. And…

…if you’re developing, your body may not produce enough hormones for your genetic sex. Leading you to be genetically male or female, chromosomally male or female, hormonally non-binary, and physically non-binary. Well, except cells have something to say about this…

Maybe cells are the answer to “biological sex”?? Right?? Cells have receptors that “hear” the signal from sex hormones. But sometimes those receptors don’t work. Like a mobile phone that’s on “do not disturb’. Call and call, they will not answer.

What does this all mean?

It means you may be genetically male or female, chromosomally male or female, hormonally male/female/non-binary, with cells that may or may not hear the male/female/non-binary call, and all this leading to a body that can be male/non-binary/female.

Try out some combinations for yourself. Notice how confusing it gets? Can you point to what the absolute cause of biological sex is? Is it fair to judge people by it?

Of course you could try appealing to the numbers. “Most people are either male or female” you say.

Except that as a biologist professor I will tell you…

The reason I don’t have my students look at their own chromosome in class is because people could learn that their chromosomal sex doesn’t match their physical sex, and learning that in the middle of a 10-point assignment is JUST NOT THE TIME.

Biological sex is complicated. Before you discriminate against someone on the basis of “biological sex” & identity, ask yourself: have you seen YOUR chromosomes? Do you know the genes of the people you love? The hormones of the people you work with? The state of their cells?


Since the answer will obviously be no, please be kind, respect people’s right to tell you who they are, and remember that you don’t have all the answers. Again: biology is complicated. Kindness and respect don’t have to be.


Note: Biological classifications exist. XX, XY, XXY XXYY and all manner of variation which is why sex isn’t classified as binary. You can’t have a binary classification system with more than two configurations even if two of those configurations are more common than others.

Biology is a shitshow. Be kind to people.

A “Come To Jesus” Moment

Mar28

That’s actually an amusing title because I’m going to discuss why I’m agnostic/atheist and the inherent problems I see in religion in general.

And I’m bringing this up because I see Jews getting upset that Israel (and by extension, Judaism) getting criticized because of the apartheid state that Israel runs coupled with the ongoing Palestinian genocide that Israel is perpetrating. And no, don’t argue with me whether it’s genocide or not. It fits the UN definition and multiple international human rights organizations have all labeled it genocide. So I’m not arguing about this and if you come here to argue about it, your comment will just get deleted. I’m not playing games with genocide defenders (because YOU, the genocide defenders, are why Trump is in the White House right now).

Anyway, let’s get back to religion. Over and over again throughout history, you find a recurring pattern – every religion that has a deity or deities, and where those deities separate human beings based on whether they worship said deity(ies) or not, you have a religion that ultimately others non-worshipers and then commits atrocities, and often genocides, in the name of said deity(ies). Full stop. Historically, this is an irrefutable fact.

You cannot get around this flaw. Religion is completely just opinion because faith is just opinion about whether something invisible is real or not. You cannot scientifically test it. You cannot see, hear, taste, smell, or feel it. It’s just opinion and, to make matters as much worse as possible, it’s an opinion that, in the historical record kills non-believers.

Every religion that others non-believers has committed atrocities! Every religion that others non-believers is, therefore, a prime enabler of genocidal behavior.

No, I don’t care that your religion is “nice”. Look at the numbers. When you consider the “kind” versions of Christianity versus the Catholics and evangelicals, the Catholics and evangelicals are about 95% of the total. Again, don’t try to argue here. Catholicism and evangelicalism have been prime movers and supporters of colonization, imperialism, and destruction of non-western cultures. History is utterly clear on that too.

So why do we even bother trying to focus on the 5% who are usually “nice” versus the 95% who are hateful, murderous, imperialistic assholes?

I mean, statistically, if I were an alien visiting earth and I looked at religion, I’d conclude it drives humans to act in utterly irrational and violent ways. Sure, there are a tiny few who are special because of their religion, but there are kind atheists and agnostics too, and they didn’t need “faith” to get that way. Meanwhile, religion continues to drive genocides, “culture wars” that actually kill people the so-called “religious” don’t like, and these religions also seek to impose their opinions (their faith) on everyone else whether you like it or not.

So I am left with this question of why do humans even consider bothering with religion? Are y’all that afraid of death that you’ll murder others to guarantee yourselves seats in some fictional afterlife that absolutely does not exist?

Religion, all religion that tries to separate people into believers and non-believers, is toxic as hell. It’s violent always and it always devolves into mass murder eventually. Every single time. That is an inescapable conclusion of history.

Further, as we see in western nation after western nation, religion demands special treatment and to be exempt from the rule of law of the secular state. Christianity does this. Islam does this. And so does Judaism. Hell, the conservative Jews in Israel are now openly calling for a “civil war” to stop the leftist Jews, to kill other Jews because they see those Jews as a threat to their continued genocide of Palestinians.

I’m not going to tell you that you shouldn’t believe in a deity. I’m not going to tell you to stop being a Christian, a Muslim, or a Jew. But I am going to ask you to honestly try to justify to yourself if the very few decent Christians/Muslims/Jews that you know are worth the cost to humanity of all of the violent and hateful Christians/Muslims/Jews that you see daily on our news channels.

Because if you are going to cling to an opinion (a belief, without any factual backing) that some people are “lesser” just because they don’t believe the way you do, then no matter what else you say, you are not a safe person. Because, in the end, the safety of anyone is conditional on your belief in your particular sky daddy (or daddies, or mommy, etc.) and that’s neither safety nor trustworthy.

The Killer of The United Healthcare CEO Is A Folk Hero

Dec7

What most of you who are whining about the rule of law are missing is that the United States of America is a failed state. It fails to function as a society for the majority anymore at all. This is why both left and right wing working class people are cheering on the assassin of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

To be clear, I am not advocating that people do what this man did. But the fact that he did it tells me an immense amount about the condition of the United States of America today and the most key finding is that the US is a failed state.

Trump never going to jail is proof of that. Trump’s reelection is proof of that. His open plan to turn the government against everyone except his billionaire friends is proof of that.

America, as some idea of a “shining city on the hill” doesn’t exist and never has. And now it never will.

America is exactly what historians have called a “failed state” for every other corrupt country that imploded in history. And failed states always die.

I predict there will be no America as you know it by 2040 at the latest, likely sooner.

And more than the CEO of United Healthcare will die in this implosion. A lot of people, regular working class people are going to die from unnatural causes over the next decade plus. Trump’s “deportation camps” (aka concentration camps) are going to kill tens of thousands via sheer neglect and willful cruelty. And when the ACA is repealed, health insurance companies will kill even more Americans in their pursuit of profit. None of this will end by politely asking them to stop. Your oppressor won’t take his boot off your neck just because you beg.

Finally, let me remind you that over Mr. Thompson’s nearly 30 year career with United Healthcare, that United Healthcare is directly responsible for over half a million deaths due to insurance being too expensive or care being denied.

Nearly 60,000 Americans die PER YEAR from lack of health insurance or denial of coverage from insurance companies. (The actual number may be even higher.)

That’s 1.8 million deaths over 30 years. United Healthcare’s share of that 1.8 million deaths is at least 450,000. At least, if not more. Mr. Thompson ran a company that has killed more Americans than were murdered in the Rwandan genocide.

Think about that. PROFIT does not excuse murder. Mr. Thompson and the entirety of the for-profit health insurance system are mass murderers. Every single person working for health insurance companies is complicit in mass murder. Every single one.

I don’t care if people don’t like that statement either. Just because we’ve made it “legal” doesn’t make it moral or ethical. Mass murder in pursuit of profit is immoral and a time will come for that bill to be paid. And history teaches us that the oppressors often pay in blood, both yours and theirs.

Consequently, I repeat, the United States is a failed state and failed states always die. Within 15 years, the USA will have gone the way of the USSR and other corrupt failed states.

Watch and see.