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What If It Happens?

Dec30

Americans need to start to seriously discuss the possibility of the balkanization of North America, of the dissolution of the United States, and what that can and will mean for the world.

The image above is for illustration purposes only. I doubt any of us could accurately predict what a shattered United States would ultimately look like. But imagine the USA with no predefined political borders. What happens when Republicans so completely neutralize the federal government that it becomes a hindrance to the states instead of a help?

California is one of the largest economies in the world. Add in Washington and Oregon and you have a high tech state that would be the 4th largest economy in the world. These three states have existing military bases of all type. Naval bases, Marine Corps bases, one of the major submarine bases for the US Navy, and several Air Force bases, and multiple US Army training facilities would give “Greater California” a head start on forming its own military.

Texas is the eighth largest economy in the world. Add in Louisiana, possibly Oklahoma, and maybe a bit of New Mexico and southeast Colorado and it would be a powerful nation in its own right.

The American south is its own cultural hub, if you presume white supremacy is some form of culture. And those states are still stubborn enough to try to go it alone, poor as many other third world nations, and that’s what the American south. call it the Second Confederacy, would be if the US shattered – a third world nation with third world education and third world healthcare.

The northeast, say from Maryland and Pennsylvania up to Maine, would have a lot of incentive to hang together. With New York state and New York City as the center of everything, it would be a global financial power.

The Great Lakes states are hard to think about, but if they chose to hang together, they’d bring a lot of economic clout to the table. If not, states like Minnesota, Michigan, maybe Wisconsin, and even Illinois (especially Chicago) might find themselves petitioning to become part of Canada.

The northern Great Plains States – Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska have a total population of 5.5 million people approximately. It’s an empty region of the world and if the US collapsed, it would be reduced to becoming the vassal of whatever nearby power chose to absorb it.

Idaho has become white supremacist central though. There are even movements to get the eastern half of Washington state added to Idaho to create a “white nation” for the racist contingent that love that part of the country. No, I’m not saying everyone from Idaho is a racist but there are a lot of them there.

Remaining states? They just sort of fall out where they might. West Virginia might try to join Kentucky and Tennessee as part of that Second Confederacy. Virginia might opt to go with the northeast instead of the Second Confederacy. Arkansas and Missouri likely would be part of that Second Confederacy or, if they’re smarter than that, maybe try to become part of Greater Texas.

But all this is just speculation. How it falls apart remains to be seen but make no mistake, the United States is, right now, today in 2024, a failed state. It’s a failed state where justice doesn’t get applied equally. It’s a failed state where Merrick Garland failed in his most basic duty to uphold the law. It’s a failed state where, in direct contravention to our history and constitution, the Roberts court declared Trump a king-like figure. It’s a failed state where The Heritage Foundation announced quite bluntly that the election of 2024 was a revolution, “bloodless of the left allows it to be”, to turn the US into something it was never intended to be.

And part of The Heritage Foundation goals is to destroy the administrative state centered in Washington, DC. They want to ultimately end it. But if they do, what reason do blue states like California or New York have to stay in the union? What does the union do for these states? More to the point, what do all the taxes that blue states pay and red states take do for those blue states? Especially when they have their own pressing issues?

The Heritage Foundation is playing directly into Vladimir Putin’s hands. Putin has been waging war on the west for over 20 years, seeking to do to the USA what the USA did to the USSR – to use internal dissidents and points of contention to break apart the larger union. When people ask me why would Putin do this? It’s simple. The lesson of the dissolution of the USSR is that a shattered Soviet Union wasn’t allowed to retain nuclear weapons except in Russia. Every other former Soviet state was pressured to disarm from nukes.

Likewise, a shattered USA would face extreme pressure to get rid of its nukes. And in losing its nuclear weapons, Putin removes the United States as a global superpower without firing a shot. The Northeastern US would likely align closely with the European Union. The Greater California nation would be focused on the Pacific rim. And America’s global focus would be gone.

The Heritage Foundation won’t accomplish all this overnight but I can’t see the United States surviving past the year 2040. And with Trump trying to legislate by decree, especially in controversial and bigoted ways, with Trump threatening to drag us into war with Mexico, Canada, Panama, and Denmark, more and more blue states are going to start asking “What do I get for remaining part of this insanity?”

And the answer is, increasingly, nothing. The blue states get nothing for staying in the union, so why stay?

Someday soon, probably within the next 10-12 years, some governor of California is going to throw the first stone. He or she will quietly negotiate a treaty with Japan or maybe even with China, then tell Washington that the state of California is no longer remitting federal taxes to Washington anymore.

And when that day comes. Or when Minnesota petitions to become part of Canada, or when New York says “no more” to GOP lunacy, that’s when the US will finally shatter.

So if you’re considering places to move, consider places that are more likely to be good countries on their own than bad ones. Because some places, like Texas, might just become a realized version of the horrors of Gilead, from The Handmaid’s Tale.

Choose wisely. It’s coming because the United States is already dead and all that’s left now is a twitching warm corpse.

I No Longer Trust You

Nov29

This is an expansion of something I did as a series of posts on BlueSky.

Occasionally, I think about the poet, Renee Vivien, and what LGBTQ people went through to live as themselves in the past. Second photo is a copy of one of her poems called Prolong The Night. Its words shout to me of the pain that existing in patriarchal cishet society must have carried.

Make no mistake but conservatives are coming for all LGBTQ people. You won’t save yourselves by throwing trans people under the bus first. Now that he’s elected, Project 2025 is loudly proclaimed by his entire administration as their guiding document. If they win, the idea of freedom dies.

I used to believe that Americans were better than this, that they’d try to rise above this hate, these lies, this violent murderous intent that oozes from every corner of the GOP. But I no longer believe that. Even those few that voted against Trump still harbor that ugly hatred of LGBTQ people.

But I’m reminded of the voyage of the MS Saint Louis, a passenger vessel that, in 1939, with more than 900 Jews aboard, was turned back by the United States to Europe. Those people were taken in by other countries than Germany but it didn’t matter because Germany overran France, Belgium, The Netherlands, and more, and many of those 900 still ended up in concentration camps and died. America turned its back on those refugees and then incarcerated its own Japanese-American citizens. I wondered if America had changed since the 1940’s and I now have my answer. You have not and I have no faith in any of you anymore.

I hadn’t planned on being laid off in Dec 2023 but I was, and forced into retirement because, as the saying goes, the same people that want us to work until age 70 are the same ones who won’t hire us after age 50. And while I still run rings around younger software engineers, I’ve been forced out.

So I’m working towards a different career, with a different goal – enough financial stability to let me leave this rotting corpse of a nation and settle myself elsewhere. To those of you choosing to stay and fight, may Inanna bless you, protect you, and save you from what’s to come. I no longer think America is capable of avoiding an era of darkness that could put both Stalin and Hitler to shame. And I expect trans people to be just the first of many sacrifices on the altar of fascist scapegoating.

But as for me, I am tired. Years and years of this only to watch Kamala Harris and the entire Democratic Party turn their backs on us during the final weeks of the election have proven to me that, just like in the 1930’s, Americans will turn us in to the fascists as soon as they demand it. Americans have always been fundamentally moral cowards and they still are.

If you’re cisgender, I now automatically no longer trust you. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries, Seth Moulton, Colin Allred, Sherrod Brown, and so many more have proven to me that you’re never to be trusted. That you’ll turn on marginalized people if it’s your path to power. Do I trust a few cisgender people? Yes, I do, but they’ve been there for me. I’ve seen what they’ll do versus your own silence when all you needed were words to fight back. You don’t have the guts to fight back tooth and nail, when the violence really begins because you couldn’t even muster words when that was all that was needed.

So don’t come into my comments proclaiming that you’re different, that you can be trusted, that you’ll protect us. Because I know, with certainty, that as soon as the fascists point their guns at you, you will turn on us again. LIberals are joking that half of America turned out to be people they wouldn’t trust with the location of Anne Frank. Well, sad to say, Anne Frank wouldn’t be safe with you liberals either, and you just proved it.

All that Democrats had to do was fight back in September and October of 2024, yet you didn’t. You kept trying to change the subject. You kept trying to gloss over the existence of trans people. You wouldn’t stand up for 0.6% of the population. Hey, to the rest of you LGB people? They won’t stand up for you either. You’re a Jew? You’re just 2.4% of the population and they won’t stand up for you either. In fact, Trump might just deport you all to Israel, to help hasten this “end times Armageddon” madness on the right.

But in the end, I now know you’ll turn tail and run, hide, or do anything except protect those targeted by the far right. Don’t object because your actions, or rather, your lack of actions when it could have mattered, have already convicted you.

Remember Why Matthew Shepard Was Attacked

Oct6

October 6th is the 26th anniversary of the date on which Matthew Shepard was brutally attacked and left to die near Laramie, Wyoming. Once found, he was rushed to Poudre Valley Hospital in Fort Collins, Colorado, where he would die from his wounds six days later on October 12th (and yes, I will mention this again at that time).

I NEVER want to hear another so-called Christian whine about the “potential lives lost” to abortion when this is still the sort of treatment that LGBTQ people receive within this sick society. Worse, I still encounter so-called Christians who are glad that Matthew Shepard died.

For those of you who hold such views, YOU are why the church continues to die off in the United States. You are the witness to what Christianity creates and people are disgusted with what they see.

It’s not just Trump. It’s everything that Trump and his ilk stand for, and that’s the gigantic label of hate and intolerance that you’ve painted all over the Christian Church, in every denomination.

P.S. Even the six verses that people claim relate to LGBTQ people in the bible do not, when reviewed in closer detail in the original languages. But the bible is absolutely clear about adultery and divorce, yet again, you Christians ignore that like it has no meaning whatsoever.

As we remember Matthew Shepard, remember why he died – because of homophobic intolerant Christianized American society.

Conservatism Is A Tool Of White Male Patriarchy

Oct1

I’ve not written here in this blog for years, but I suppose I should start again. So here are thoughts from today.

Everything about American conservatism (and by extension, Libertarianism, which is a distinctly American creation) is aimed at conserving white male supremacy.

It always has been. Those of us raised with those “values” foremost in our lives have had to undergo deprogramming processes, because yes, inflicting that on people is a kind of programming.

It’s a programming that teaches that poverty is a moral failing and not the inevitable result of capitalism, in order to defend capitalism from charges of cruelty. It’s programming that has to constantly chant that women must be submissive, because if women being submissive were the natural order of things, it wouldn’t have to be indoctrinated into women their entire lives. It’s programming that requires scapegoats, to distract young white men from realizing that wealthy elites are picking their pockets too, just not quite as hard as they’re picking everyone else’s pockets. People of color, Muslims, LGBTQ people – anyone different enough that the wealthy can rapidly build a program (note that word) of easily disseminated but believable lies against is useful to the wealthy elites as a scapegoat to divide working class people.

“If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” ― Lyndon B. Johnson

Even “economic conservatism” is part of this preservation of the white patriarchy by ensuring that wealth already ill gotten is not to be attacked for being either an expression of too much greed or outright cruelty to those it was taken from. Note that I make a distinction between traditional economic conservatism and what I call “fiscal efficiency”. Government often is not the most efficient at its use of available funds to accomplish a task. The expanded Child Tax Credit that was enacted during the pandemic is a good example. It got money into the hands of families that needed it, lifted many children out of poverty, and avoided creating a large government agency to attend to that task by using information that the IRS already had to directly send checks to those families. Finding efficient ways to help government function isn’t limited to economic conservatism so it’s not part of that ideology.

We have a long road to travel as a nation but we have workable blueprints in front of us from other nations. We know that there are multiple different kinds of healthcare systems that are both more financially efficient than the “free market” and that ensure that everyone has coverage. Even Adam Smith noted that healthcare is not a normal consumer good.

And while I despise capitalism, I’ve not yet seen a working example of pure socialism or communism that works in a manner that makes any sense to me. So for now, I support the the concept of social democracies with tight regulation of economies, harsh limits on upper income levels, and the creation of national wealth funds. I completely support the 100% taxation of any assets that any individual has over $1 billion dollars. All such assets don’t have to be sold off but instead could be transferred to a national wealth fund to subsequently feed government budgets from dividends, stock sales, etc. If the size of such funds is problematic, they could be divided into multiple funds that have to compete with one another. There’s a lot of details to work out but other nations have national wealth funds that contribute to the overall good of the nation so why can’t the US?

In short, I’ve never seen one aspect of modern American conservatism that isn’t laser focused on preserving white male supremacy. Every aspect of conservatism has at least one side effect, if not more, that is beneficial to white male supremacy. Modern American conservatism, since at least the 1960’s, has been nothing but a tool of a primarily white fascist elite and with every passing year, that becomes more and more obvious.

Twilight’s End

Oct6

The United States has been falling into an authoritarian twilight for years now, decades, since Nixon and Kevin Phillips created the Southern Strategy to appeal to white racist southern voters. The election of Trump is not the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning of the rise of something terrible and cruel in North America.

I’ve said since the night of the 2016 presidential election that the US died that night, and what we’ve been watching since is the maggots feeding on the corpse. But maggots can only go so far.

Soon, something truly evil will arise in place of what once was the United States. It will carry the same name, but it will look and behave nothing like the America into which I was born.

With the elevation of the highly partisan and screaming-shouting-crying man-baby, Brett Kavanaugh, to the Supreme Court, the right wing now sits poised to gut the Voting Rights Act completely, to uphold voter suppression laws, and to ultimately attack the 1964 Civil Rights Act. This became apparent clear back in 2015 when a GOP pastor, when pressed about an equal rights ordinance in Texas to which she objected because it protected transgender people, also admitted that she believes she has the right to discriminate against Jews, Blacks, anyone, so long as it is “religiously motivated”.

Here is the video of that.  She has to be pressed but finally admits that, yes, discriminating against Jews should be allowed for “sincerely held religious beliefs”. If that doesn’t terrify you, then you’re not thinking clearly or you’re one of those who want to persecute minorities. This is the end game of the “religious freedom” lie – where they carve out “sincerely held religious belief” exemptions to federal laws across the board.

So this is a long running right wing agenda. They tried to vilify gays and failed. But now they have vilified trans people, all trans people, to create a fear based wedge issue to drive ignorant voters to the polls, to give them the power they seek. Their first step will not to be attack protected classes under the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Instead, they will attack trans people as the “wedge” issue. Once they win against trans people (and they will win with Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh), that becomes precedent about “religious freedom”.

Next, they will circle back to gays, because gays are not covered either. That will give them the precedent reinforced by a second case. After that, they’ll start coming after protected classes named in law. My bet is the first class will be religion, but they’ll hide that as an attack against Muslims, again, because of “sincerely held religious beliefs”. Kavanaugh and Gorsuch will be the most likely authors of the majority opinion then. They will make spurious claims about America being a “Christian” nation, about the founders “not intending” to protect religions other than Christianity. They will do whatever pretzel logic they need to get that critical break into the 1964 Civil Rights Act wall of protection. That’s why I believe Muslims will be targeted first, because of the fear that right wingers can generate about Muslims.

Once they reach that point, they’ve now created precedent that allows exemptions to the 1964 Civil Rights Act for reasons of “religious freedom”. Further exemptions, against blacks, women, etc. Remember the “Curse of Ham” biblical teachings that were used by white Christian southerners to justify treating people of color as sub-human? That will be dragged out of the cesspool once again and become a “sincerely held religious belief” because the bible says so, right? Likewise with subordinating women, firing women, refusing them access to birth control of any kind, and taking their other rights away as well.

People point to winning the mid-terms as how to stop this. I ask them “How does that work?” They mumble asinine things about “impeachment”. The House can impeach but if the Senate fails to vote to remove, the impeachment has no effect. Removal from office requires 67 Senate votes. Even if Democrats win every single Senate race in 2018, we still only end up with 53 or so senators. Do any of you seriously believe that 14 Republicans will vote to remove Donald Trump? So Trump is staying, at least to 2020, and probably beyond since Republicans will have two years of the Kavanaugh/Gorsuch court to seal the deal on even more voter suppression laws.

But let’s say Democrats get the mother of all wins in 2020. They get the Senate, the House, the Presidency. What then? Every liberal law they pass will immediately get challenged to the right wing Supreme Court. That court will stand on its head, if need be, to void liberal laws. So Democrats won’t be able to do anything effective. And then when Republicans eventually get power back, and they will, they will continue taking us down the path to the nation of Gilead, as described in The Handmaid’s Tale.

You think I jest? Conservatives at CPAC, one of the largest and most important conservative political conferences, now even have white males argues in favor of slavery again. Men argue women should have never been given the right to vote and those are conservative men making that argument. They belittle sexual assault survivors. Here’s conservative darling, William Bennett, telling women who are sexual assault survivors to “be quiet” and “have you no shame?” as he taunts them.

The religious right wing in America has publicly and clearly stated their agenda, many times. Separation of the races, oppression of women because “the bible says so”, the complete recriminalization of  anything about being LGBT, and driving LGBT out of visible sight in society.  Todd Kincannon, former executive director of the South Carolina GOP, said “There are people who respect transgender rights. And there are people who think you should all be put in a camp. That’s me.” NOTE: Kincannon’s Twitter account was suspended over this so you can’t find the original tweets anymore, although they’ve been capture in screenshots and articles. But guess what? Not one single other Republican called this hateful message out! Not one. Not one single Republican. None of them would say that such a thing was hateful and wrong.  You know that many of them are thinking the same thing when none of them have the courage to say that’s terrible and wrong.

So here we are. Twilight has been coming over America for about 50 years now. With each successive Republican administration, more vile and evil things come to pass. The authoritarian Patriot Act? Republicans overwhelmingly support that every time it comes up. Some Democrats do as well but the majority have not. That should give you a sense of who the real authoritarians are. And now we have Trump, thanks to privileged voters who refused to stand against Trump and who get angry when you call them out for their culpability in this ongoing national disaster. Kids in cages, thousands of lies from Trump, sometimes more than a dozen daily, factually wrong, easily refuted lies. LGBT people’s rights are under assault. Women’s rights to control their own bodies are under assault. Voting rights of minority voters are under assault. The environment is under assault. Middle class wages continue to fall as the ultra rich pocket more and more of the nation’s wealth. And all of that is precisely as Republicans intend it to be.

I’m sorry to tell you this, but even if we win in 2018, all we’ve bought is a small bit of time, nothing more. Twilight is almost done. And someday soon, you will wake up and instead of the twilight, you will have to face the thousand year night.