This is to every single person who told me I was “hysterical” for predicting the rise of theocratic based fascism in the United States as long as 11 years ago (before Trump even announced his candidacy)
This is for every single person who told me “that can’t happen here”.
This is for every single person who said our institutions would save us.
The entire time, conservatives have said in advance, publicly, precisely how they would undermine everything, destroy every safeguard, seize control of every institution.
Even if a given court rules Trump in contempt of violating a court order, who’s going to arrest him now? Who’s going to enforce anything?
And now we have the first concentration camp since WWII. We have citizens being threatened with deportation. Kids being denied medical care. An entire group of human beings being actively erased from existence and history (that’s called “genocide” for you who are too f*cking stupid to get it).
Some of you are just NOW finally asking how do we mobilize against this to “save” our country? You should have mobilized a decade ago. In waiting til now to realize this, you’ve already lost. The United States of America is already dead. And you can’t face that, can you? You killed it by your inaction, your refusal to listen to what they openly said.
For those that can get out, do it as soon as you can. For those that can’t, your lives and the lives of your descendants for generations will become a living hell.
You were warned and ignored every warning. You deserve what’s coming. Those of us who told you don’t deserve this but we’re the direct targets. Our blood will be on your hands too. Trump didn’t do this alone. You let him.
Carry that guilt to your grave. And to every spineless Democrat in Congress seeking “common ground” with these fascists? May you burn in hell.
Some folks are talking about resistance, about saving the country. I don’t think the country can be saved. Worse, I don’t expect the United States to survive. If you’re talking about resistance, consider at least thinking what a shattered United States might look like, what the politics of each region might be, and where you’d prefer to live. (Sample map above is just a sample of how the US might shatter. All sorts of other arrangements are completely possible too.)
Why consider this? Because Putin is doing to the USA what the USA did to the USSR – funding internal dissidents, getting people into power who oppose central governments generally, and who then make that central government incompetent, or worse, make that central government into an actual detriment. (Trump vs California for disaster assistance is going to show this clearly.) As the central government becomes increasingly irrelevant, blue states are going to have to ask themselves why they are staying. When Trump and Republicans deny disaster aid to California, California is going to have a big WTF moment when they ask why they are subsidizing red states because that’s a fact – blue states subsidize the red states, except for Texas which also subsidizes other red states.
Trump’s policies are also going to turn into issues that make people question why they are part of the United States of America at all. Increasingly, there are deep divides that I do not think can be surmounted by simple politics. People are going to get hurt, some may get killed because of this. Blue states are going to find that Trump will be prepared to browbeat them into submission for his way or the highway. And the highway is going to look better and better as time goes on.
And that is going to turn into large incentive to leave the union and keep all that tax money at home. California is the 5th largest economy in the world. With Oregon and Washington state, it would be the 3rd largest economy. California’s GDP is $4.08 trillion. Washington state’s is $850 billion. Oregon’s is $329 billion. Germany is the 3rd largest economy in the world right now, at $4.9 trillion. Those three states would pass it and be worth $5.29 billion. If they kept their taxes at home, they could fund their own military, have universal healthcare, and a wide range of social programs for the working class just like in Europe.
New York plus Pennsylvania plus the New England states could be the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. They could afford those things too and would likely ally with NATO and participate in the EU in some fashion. As Trump, Bannon, etc., achieve their goals of “dismantling the administrative state”, the incentives for blue states to stay will continue to drop. As Trump implements policies that go against what blue states want, the incentives to leave will continue to rise.
Further, Trump is openly talking about arresting blue state elected officials who do not bow to his demands. How long will that be accepted? Will every National Guard member, particularly officers, allow the arbitrary arrests of elected officials just because they oppose Donald Trump’s policies? Remember, The Heritage Foundation is saying this as well. They want to turn the US into Hungary, a thin veneer of “democracy” lain over top of a vast oligarchy that focuses on enriching the already rich at the expense of everyone else.
I do not expect the survival of the United States of America beyond the 2040-2045 time frame and it may collapse even faster than that, especially if Trump gets the 22nd amendment overturned. And remember, they’ve publicly said they’re going after the 19th too. But the next 10-20 years are going to be rough in this country, very rough. If you’re an older minority and can afford to relocate to another country, consider doing so.
Remember, Putin has a goal here that many are missing. The collapse of the USSR taught Putin that when a nuclear power collapses, the rest of the world brings tremendous pressure on the newly independent states to denuclearize. With the USSR, all did except Russia. Nobody wants a nuclear armed Montana or Arkansas, so if the US does collapse, Putin gets to remove the United States as a global power in one fell swoop without ever firing a shot. It’s a brilliant strategy and it appears to be succeeding slowly but steadily.
This is why Putin has funded white nationalists in the US. This is why Putin funneled $30 million dollars through the NRA to right wing political entities. This is why every secession movement so far has been headquartered in Russia. And unfortunately, this approach is working. This is why Putin supports incompetent politicians – to render the central federal government of the United States inept, incompetent, and corrupt, thus further driving the wedge between the federal government and the individual states.
Thus, I do not expect the United States to survive. My advice is relocate to a blue state and wait for the collapse or get out of the country entirely. Either can work but in the long run, I don’t expect there to be a United States of America.
My final comment is this – if the United States does survive as a single entity, I expect it to end up as a Christofascist Neo-Nazi theocracy based on rigid right wing evangelical values. LGBTQ people will be fully persecuted. People of color will be ghettoized fully again by Jim Crow laws, or worse. Non-Christians may find themselves persecuted and subject to a functionally apartheid state set against them and for evangelical right wing Christians.
The best outcome I can see is the Balkanization of the United States but if the United States survives as a single political entity, it’s going to be a nuclear armed third world theocratic hell hole.
Americans need to start to seriously discuss the possibility of the balkanization of North America, of the dissolution of the United States, and what that can and will mean for the world.
The image above is for illustration purposes only. I doubt any of us could accurately predict what a shattered United States would ultimately look like. But imagine the USA with no predefined political borders. What happens when Republicans so completely neutralize the federal government that it becomes a hindrance to the states instead of a help?
California is one of the largest economies in the world. Add in Washington and Oregon and you have a high tech state that would be the 4th largest economy in the world. These three states have existing military bases of all type. Naval bases, Marine Corps bases, one of the major submarine bases for the US Navy, and several Air Force bases, and multiple US Army training facilities would give “Greater California” a head start on forming its own military.
Texas is the eighth largest economy in the world. Add in Louisiana, possibly Oklahoma, and maybe a bit of New Mexico and southeast Colorado and it would be a powerful nation in its own right.
The American south is its own cultural hub, if you presume white supremacy is some form of culture. And those states are still stubborn enough to try to go it alone, poor as many other third world nations, and that’s what the American south. call it the Second Confederacy, would be if the US shattered – a third world nation with third world education and third world healthcare.
The northeast, say from Maryland and Pennsylvania up to Maine, would have a lot of incentive to hang together. With New York state and New York City as the center of everything, it would be a global financial power.
The Great Lakes states are hard to think about, but if they chose to hang together, they’d bring a lot of economic clout to the table. If not, states like Minnesota, Michigan, maybe Wisconsin, and even Illinois (especially Chicago) might find themselves petitioning to become part of Canada.
The northern Great Plains States – Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska have a total population of 5.5 million people approximately. It’s an empty region of the world and if the US collapsed, it would be reduced to becoming the vassal of whatever nearby power chose to absorb it.
Idaho has become white supremacist central though. There are even movements to get the eastern half of Washington state added to Idaho to create a “white nation” for the racist contingent that love that part of the country. No, I’m not saying everyone from Idaho is a racist but there are a lot of them there.
Remaining states? They just sort of fall out where they might. West Virginia might try to join Kentucky and Tennessee as part of that Second Confederacy. Virginia might opt to go with the northeast instead of the Second Confederacy. Arkansas and Missouri likely would be part of that Second Confederacy or, if they’re smarter than that, maybe try to become part of Greater Texas.
But all this is just speculation. How it falls apart remains to be seen but make no mistake, the United States is, right now, today in 2024, a failed state. It’s a failed state where justice doesn’t get applied equally. It’s a failed state where Merrick Garland failed in his most basic duty to uphold the law. It’s a failed state where, in direct contravention to our history and constitution, the Roberts court declared Trump a king-like figure. It’s a failed state where The Heritage Foundation announced quite bluntly that the election of 2024 was a revolution, “bloodless of the left allows it to be”, to turn the US into something it was never intended to be.
And part of The Heritage Foundation goals is to destroy the administrative state centered in Washington, DC. They want to ultimately end it. But if they do, what reason do blue states like California or New York have to stay in the union? What does the union do for these states? More to the point, what do all the taxes that blue states pay and red states take do for those blue states? Especially when they have their own pressing issues?
The Heritage Foundation is playing directly into Vladimir Putin’s hands. Putin has been waging war on the west for over 20 years, seeking to do to the USA what the USA did to the USSR – to use internal dissidents and points of contention to break apart the larger union. When people ask me why would Putin do this? It’s simple. The lesson of the dissolution of the USSR is that a shattered Soviet Union wasn’t allowed to retain nuclear weapons except in Russia. Every other former Soviet state was pressured to disarm from nukes.
Likewise, a shattered USA would face extreme pressure to get rid of its nukes. And in losing its nuclear weapons, Putin removes the United States as a global superpower without firing a shot. The Northeastern US would likely align closely with the European Union. The Greater California nation would be focused on the Pacific rim. And America’s global focus would be gone.
The Heritage Foundation won’t accomplish all this overnight but I can’t see the United States surviving past the year 2040. And with Trump trying to legislate by decree, especially in controversial and bigoted ways, with Trump threatening to drag us into war with Mexico, Canada, Panama, and Denmark, more and more blue states are going to start asking “What do I get for remaining part of this insanity?”
And the answer is, increasingly, nothing. The blue states get nothing for staying in the union, so why stay?
Someday soon, probably within the next 10-12 years, some governor of California is going to throw the first stone. He or she will quietly negotiate a treaty with Japan or maybe even with China, then tell Washington that the state of California is no longer remitting federal taxes to Washington anymore.
And when that day comes. Or when Minnesota petitions to become part of Canada, or when New York says “no more” to GOP lunacy, that’s when the US will finally shatter.
So if you’re considering places to move, consider places that are more likely to be good countries on their own than bad ones. Because some places, like Texas, might just become a realized version of the horrors of Gilead, from The Handmaid’s Tale.
Choose wisely. It’s coming because the United States is already dead and all that’s left now is a twitching warm corpse.
This is an expansion of something I did as a series of posts on BlueSky.
Occasionally, I think about the poet, Renee Vivien, and what LGBTQ people went through to live as themselves in the past. Second photo is a copy of one of her poems called Prolong The Night. Its words shout to me of the pain that existing in patriarchal cishet society must have carried.
Make no mistake but conservatives are coming for all LGBTQ people. You won’t save yourselves by throwing trans people under the bus first. Now that he’s elected, Project 2025 is loudly proclaimed by his entire administration as their guiding document. If they win, the idea of freedom dies.
I used to believe that Americans were better than this, that they’d try to rise above this hate, these lies, this violent murderous intent that oozes from every corner of the GOP. But I no longer believe that. Even those few that voted against Trump still harbor that ugly hatred of LGBTQ people.
But I’m reminded of the voyage of the MS Saint Louis, a passenger vessel that, in 1939, with more than 900 Jews aboard, was turned back by the United States to Europe. Those people were taken in by other countries than Germany but it didn’t matter because Germany overran France, Belgium, The Netherlands, and more, and many of those 900 still ended up in concentration camps and died. America turned its back on those refugees and then incarcerated its own Japanese-American citizens. I wondered if America had changed since the 1940’s and I now have my answer. You have not and I have no faith in any of you anymore.
I hadn’t planned on being laid off in Dec 2023 but I was, and forced into retirement because, as the saying goes, the same people that want us to work until age 70 are the same ones who won’t hire us after age 50. And while I still run rings around younger software engineers, I’ve been forced out.
So I’m working towards a different career, with a different goal – enough financial stability to let me leave this rotting corpse of a nation and settle myself elsewhere. To those of you choosing to stay and fight, may Inanna bless you, protect you, and save you from what’s to come. I no longer think America is capable of avoiding an era of darkness that could put both Stalin and Hitler to shame. And I expect trans people to be just the first of many sacrifices on the altar of fascist scapegoating.
But as for me, I am tired. Years and years of this only to watch Kamala Harris and the entire Democratic Party turn their backs on us during the final weeks of the election have proven to me that, just like in the 1930’s, Americans will turn us in to the fascists as soon as they demand it. Americans have always been fundamentally moral cowards and they still are.
If you’re cisgender, I now automatically no longer trust you. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries, Seth Moulton, Colin Allred, Sherrod Brown, and so many more have proven to me that you’re never to be trusted. That you’ll turn on marginalized people if it’s your path to power. Do I trust a few cisgender people? Yes, I do, but they’ve been there for me. I’ve seen what they’ll do versus your own silence when all you needed were words to fight back. You don’t have the guts to fight back tooth and nail, when the violence really begins because you couldn’t even muster words when that was all that was needed.
So don’t come into my comments proclaiming that you’re different, that you can be trusted, that you’ll protect us. Because I know, with certainty, that as soon as the fascists point their guns at you, you will turn on us again. LIberals are joking that half of America turned out to be people they wouldn’t trust with the location of Anne Frank. Well, sad to say, Anne Frank wouldn’t be safe with you liberals either, and you just proved it.
All that Democrats had to do was fight back in September and October of 2024, yet you didn’t. You kept trying to change the subject. You kept trying to gloss over the existence of trans people. You wouldn’t stand up for 0.6% of the population. Hey, to the rest of you LGB people? They won’t stand up for you either. You’re a Jew? You’re just 2.4% of the population and they won’t stand up for you either. In fact, Trump might just deport you all to Israel, to help hasten this “end times Armageddon” madness on the right.
But in the end, I now know you’ll turn tail and run, hide, or do anything except protect those targeted by the far right. Don’t object because your actions, or rather, your lack of actions when it could have mattered, have already convicted you.
October 6th is the 26th anniversary of the date on which Matthew Shepard was brutally attacked and left to die near Laramie, Wyoming. Once found, he was rushed to Poudre Valley Hospital in Fort Collins, Colorado, where he would die from his wounds six days later on October 12th (and yes, I will mention this again at that time).
I NEVER want to hear another so-called Christian whine about the “potential lives lost” to abortion when this is still the sort of treatment that LGBTQ people receive within this sick society. Worse, I still encounter so-called Christians who are glad that Matthew Shepard died.
For those of you who hold such views, YOU are why the church continues to die off in the United States. You are the witness to what Christianity creates and people are disgusted with what they see.
It’s not just Trump. It’s everything that Trump and his ilk stand for, and that’s the gigantic label of hate and intolerance that you’ve painted all over the Christian Church, in every denomination.
P.S. Even the six verses that people claim relate to LGBTQ people in the bible do not, when reviewed in closer detail in the original languages. But the bible is absolutely clear about adultery and divorce, yet again, you Christians ignore that like it has no meaning whatsoever.
As we remember Matthew Shepard, remember why he died – because of homophobic intolerant Christianized American society.
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