Recently, Pete Buttigieg tried to assert that the transgender sports issue is “complex” and that the voices of those who oppose trans girls in sports should be heard too. I suppose you could claim the issue is “complex” but there’s already a great deal of scientific research about this that’s complete. Some of the studies included large numbers of trans athletes too, so the results are something to think about. Let’s look at a few of the largest of those studies.

The US Air Force conducted two studies about transgender athletic performance, using transgender and cisgender service members. Service members are in considerably better physical condition than the rest of the United States because they have to be. They take and must pass physical fitness tests multiple times per year. Failure to pass usually means the soldier in question has a limited time to retake and pass the test or be discharged from the service for failure to meet the physical requirements associated with military service.

So service members provide an excellent proxy for athletes and there is a large number of them that can be evaluated to get reasonable samples. So what did the Air Force find about transgender service members?

First, before beginning hormone replacement therapy (HRT), transgender women consistently performed worse than cisgender men. After one year of hormone therapy, transgender women performed worse than with no hormone therapy but still better than cisgender women. But by two years of HRT, transgender women performed in the same range as cisgender women in every category measured, except one. Even their bone density lessened until it was the same as cisgender women’s bone density. Their VO2 max lessened until it was in the same range as cisgender women.

Now, to be specific, in the smaller Air Force study conducted by TA Roberts, J Smalley, and D Ahrendt, after 2 years, trans women showed a minor run speed advantage but performed otherwise the same as cisgender women in all other tests. In the larger study, done by E. Chicarelli, J Aden, D Ahrendt, and J Smalley, the run speed advantage vanished when examined across a larger sample size. I’ve provided a link to the study below which is from the National Library of Medicine. Further, the larger study went on to the four years mark of HRT as well, however, many of the transgender service members chose to leave the service and were not available for comparison in the four year data sample.

This wasn’t a unique result either. The International Olympic Committee has studied this multiple times and found no basis to support any claim that transgender women will outperform cisgender women. In fact, in April 2024, the IOC released another study that said that, based on the data measured, transgender women not only did not perform better than cisgender women in elite athletics but the data suggested that trans women are actually at a minor handicap in elite athletics vs cisgender women. Trans women athletes tend to have more body fat and less lean muscle mass than cisgender women athletes. The IOC did find that trans women retained an advantage in grip strength though.

So what the science is telling us, repeatedly, is that in most sports, trans women do not have a significant advantage over cisgender women. This is especially true of team sports like basketball, volleyball, and soccer. You can argue that more specific research needs to be done but anyone making the blanket claim that trans women should be banned from all women’s sports is simply talking from a position of ignorance and bigotry.

Finally, what has not been done is any sort of analysis on trans girls who never undergo male puberty. That’s a study that likely needs to be done. However, as someone who coached youth soccer for years, I can state that I very often found pre-pubescent cisgender girls to be more athletic than the pre-pubescent cisgender boys. That’s anecdotal but it’s a common observation. What we don’t currently have (to the best of my knowledge) are any significant studies on the impacts of puberty blockers and HRT on trans kids who do not then experience their biological puberty.

We can give Pete the benefit of the doubt on this because it is a nuanced issue and it does need more study. However, I think we can authoritatively agree that total bans on trans women and trans girls in all women’s sports is not based on science, and has more to do with bigotry and hate than with anything scientific.

REFERENCES:

The Impact of Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy on Physical Performance

Strength, power and aerobic capacity of transgender athletes: a cross-sectional study