Archive | January 2025

Trump Is Moving Faster Than I Expected

Jan22

Trump and his Heritage Foundation allies are moving far faster than I expected. Let me ponder a few things here.

If you’ve followed me any length of time, you’re probably aware that I am pretty convinced that Putin is using every lever at his disposal to shatter the United States as a political entity and Balkanize North America. His motive for this is pretty clear. The Balkanization of the USSR led to intense international pressure on the then newly independent former Soviet states to get rid of their nuclear weapons. This is what I believe is driving Putin’s funding and support of right wing extremism and isolationism in the United States.

If he accomplishes this, he removes the USA as a global nuclear power, leaving Russia as the most powerful nuclear armed nation in the entire world. Britain, France, and China have nuclear forces but not on the scale of Russia. Israel’s nuclear forces, though never officially admitted by the Israeli government, are assumed to be similar to those of France and Britain. India, Pakistan, and Iran are wild cards but are not, so far as we know, nuclear armed at this time though they have the potential. The only other state that is fully capable of producing a nuclear warhead in very rapid fashion is Japan and they have not (yet).

The reason I bring this up is because Trump’s latest executive orders, ordering the Attorney General to prosecute state and local officials who refuse to obey his anti-immigration executive orders, and his “anti-DEI” executive order, urging federal employees to report any federal contract with a private company or any other federal employee who they believe are DEI contracts or DEI hires to the new White House “snitch” hotline.

Both of these moves are going to create intense backlash against the federal government. It’s almost like Trump is intentionally driving wedges between the states and the federal government (I think it is intentional) and eventually that pressure may lead to what I’ve been talking about for years – certain Blue states leaving the union.

I remain convinced that the West Coast states are the most likely ones to go first purely on the strength of their economy. If you are not leaving the United States and you are on the West Coast, you MAY be situated to benefit from this. A pro-freedom social democracy consisting of California, Oregon, and Washington would easily be the third largest economy in the world. Part of Nevada might want to go to – Reno and Nevada. And if Arizona could pull its head out of its ass, it might want to as well.

Events are happening faster than I expected. I expected the US to shatter several years from now (in the 2030s) but, again in my personal opinion, that breakup may now occur during Trump’s term.

You may become witness to the end of the United States as we have known it.

Don’t get me wrong. Other Blue states may break away as well. Blue Minnesota, Purple Wisconsin, Blue Michigan, plus the very northern part of Illinois (Chicago area) might try to become part of Canada. New York and the New England states might break away and try to form an alliance with the EU and Canada.

We really cannot predict with precision what might happen here but the United States seems hellbent on following a path that leads to one of two ends – either a nuclear armed right wing fascist dictatorship (Putin doesn’t want that because he can’t guarantee he can control it downstream) or a shattered United States (this renders the US irrelevant on a global scale and accomplishes Putin’s goals).

If you can’t leave the US, you may want to plan to get to a solidly blue state. And my bet remains on the west coast leaving the union first.

We are in a constitutional crisis right now and have been since Trump’s first presidency and it just got far worse with his inauguration for his second term. Brace yourselves. It’s going to get bad before it gets better. The number of really bad executive orders is astounding. They will be fought in court, but with the courts stacked with pro-Trump judges, we can’t count on courts to save us.

The End Of The United States As We Know It

Jan14

Some folks are talking about resistance, about saving the country. I don’t think the country can be saved. Worse, I don’t expect the United States to survive. If you’re talking about resistance, consider at least thinking what a shattered United States might look like, what the politics of each region might be, and where you’d prefer to live. (Sample map above is just a sample of how the US might shatter. All sorts of other arrangements are completely possible too.)

Why consider this? Because Putin is doing to the USA what the USA did to the USSR – funding internal dissidents, getting people into power who oppose central governments generally, and who then make that central government incompetent, or worse, make that central government into an actual detriment. (Trump vs California for disaster assistance is going to show this clearly.) As the central government becomes increasingly irrelevant, blue states are going to have to ask themselves why they are staying. When Trump and Republicans deny disaster aid to California, California is going to have a big WTF moment when they ask why they are subsidizing red states because that’s a fact – blue states subsidize the red states, except for Texas which also subsidizes other red states.

Trump’s policies are also going to turn into issues that make people question why they are part of the United States of America at all. Increasingly, there are deep divides that I do not think can be surmounted by simple politics. People are going to get hurt, some may get killed because of this. Blue states are going to find that Trump will be prepared to browbeat them into submission for his way or the highway. And the highway is going to look better and better as time goes on.

And that is going to turn into large incentive to leave the union and keep all that tax money at home. California is the 5th largest economy in the world. With Oregon and Washington state, it would be the 3rd largest economy. California’s GDP is $4.08 trillion. Washington state’s is $850 billion. Oregon’s is $329 billion. Germany is the 3rd largest economy in the world right now, at $4.9 trillion. Those three states would pass it and be worth $5.29 billion. If they kept their taxes at home, they could fund their own military, have universal healthcare, and a wide range of social programs for the working class just like in Europe.

New York plus Pennsylvania plus the New England states could be the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. They could afford those things too and would likely ally with NATO and participate in the EU in some fashion. As Trump, Bannon, etc., achieve their goals of “dismantling the administrative state”, the incentives for blue states to stay will continue to drop. As Trump implements policies that go against what blue states want, the incentives to leave will continue to rise.

Further, Trump is openly talking about arresting blue state elected officials who do not bow to his demands. How long will that be accepted? Will every National Guard member, particularly officers, allow the arbitrary arrests of elected officials just because they oppose Donald Trump’s policies? Remember, The Heritage Foundation is saying this as well. They want to turn the US into Hungary, a thin veneer of “democracy” lain over top of a vast oligarchy that focuses on enriching the already rich at the expense of everyone else.

I do not expect the survival of the United States of America beyond the 2040-2045 time frame and it may collapse even faster than that, especially if Trump gets the 22nd amendment overturned. And remember, they’ve publicly said they’re going after the 19th too. But the next 10-20 years are going to be rough in this country, very rough. If you’re an older minority and can afford to relocate to another country, consider doing so.

Remember, Putin has a goal here that many are missing. The collapse of the USSR taught Putin that when a nuclear power collapses, the rest of the world brings tremendous pressure on the newly independent states to denuclearize. With the USSR, all did except Russia. Nobody wants a nuclear armed Montana or Arkansas, so if the US does collapse, Putin gets to remove the United States as a global power in one fell swoop without ever firing a shot. It’s a brilliant strategy and it appears to be succeeding slowly but steadily.

This is why Putin has funded white nationalists in the US. This is why Putin funneled $30 million dollars through the NRA to right wing political entities. This is why every secession movement so far has been headquartered in Russia. And unfortunately, this approach is working. This is why Putin supports incompetent politicians – to render the central federal government of the United States inept, incompetent, and corrupt, thus further driving the wedge between the federal government and the individual states.

Thus, I do not expect the United States to survive. My advice is relocate to a blue state and wait for the collapse or get out of the country entirely. Either can work but in the long run, I don’t expect there to be a United States of America.

My final comment is this – if the United States does survive as a single entity, I expect it to end up as a Christofascist Neo-Nazi theocracy based on rigid right wing evangelical values. LGBTQ people will be fully persecuted. People of color will be ghettoized fully again by Jim Crow laws, or worse. Non-Christians may find themselves persecuted and subject to a functionally apartheid state set against them and for evangelical right wing Christians.

The best outcome I can see is the Balkanization of the United States but if the United States survives as a single political entity, it’s going to be a nuclear armed third world theocratic hell hole.